2012
Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE): An Update
Measurement & Analysis , SEI Research , Software Cost Estimates 6 Comments »
By Dave Zubrow,
Chief Scientist
Software Engineering Process Management Program
By law, major defense acquisition programs are now required to prepare cost estimates earlier in the acquisition lifecycle, including pre-Milestone A,
well before concrete technical information is available on the program
being developed. Estimates are therefore often based on a desired
capability—or even on an abstract concept—rather than a concrete
technical solution plan to achieve the desired capability. Hence the
role and modeling of assumptions becomes more challenging. This blog
posting outlines a multi-year project on Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation (QUELCE) conducted by the SEI Software Engineering Measurement and Analysis (SEMA)
team. QUELCE is a method for improving pre-Milestone A software cost
estimates through research designed to improve judgment regarding
uncertainty in key assumptions (which we term program change drivers), the relationships among the program change drivers, and their impact on cost.
Recent Comments